On Draft Pick Quantity vs. Quality

After trading Petr Mrazek to the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday night, Red Wings general manager Ken Holland said something that triggered a gut reaction of concern in me.  I honestly don’t know if there are numbers to back up my worry, so I’m going to walk through it a bit.

“What’s driving me is I want us to be a team that can compete for the Stanley Cup. We’re competitive, but we’re not quite where we need to be in order to be where we want to be. I have to acquire draft picks and we need to hit on those draft picks.

“The more draft picks I can acquire, or young players through trades, is a better chance we’re going to wake up three or four or five years from now, or two years from now, and start to see young players coming on to the team and have an impact.”

That’s from the Detroit News but Winging it in Motown highlighted it this morning.  It also comes coupled with rumblings that the Red Wings may accept two second round picks for Mike Green rather than a first-rounder.

It’s well-known that the Red Wings haven’t had many high draft picks in the last several decades.  Trying to find a team that has consistently picked near the Wings in the draft even just going back to the big lockout in 2005 is impossible.  They’re in a relatively unique situation that has – to a large extent – led to their current downswing, as they haven’t been able to restock their talent pool with top prospects.

Knowing that – yet hearing Holland declare than the answer is to acquire more second, third, and fourth round draft picks – is triggering my spidey sense, so to speak.  If the team’s downfall is because they never pick at the top, how is the path to a rebuild through the second and third and fourth rounds?

Let me take a second to acknowledge that defining picks by round is somewhat lazy.  The 32nd overall pick and the 62nd overall pick this summer will both be second-rounders but they’re not really comparable.  As such, while I’m attempting to apply some logic to this, it’s entirely unscientific.

With that in mind, I’ve been looking back at Detroit’s recent drafts, trying to determine just how good the organization is at making use of picks outside of the first round.  I went back to the 2005 draft as the salary cap era is really when the Wings were no longer able to replenish their roster via free agency.

Detroit has had 95 draft picks in that time.  Thus far, 33 of them have played at least one NHL game.  Yes, that measure means there’s built-in bias against recent drafts, as those players haven’t had the chance to make their debuts.

Eliminate the first-rounders, since we’re talking about what the Wings can do if they don’t acquire extra picks in the opening round, and we’re down to 26 players.  We might as well drop the sixth- and seventh-rounders, too, since no one has claimed you rebuild with those.  That’s another four gone, so we’re at 22.

Of those, only 14 are still in the NHL, though that leaves out Dominic Turgeon, who got a call-up earlier this year and is now back with the Griffins, so let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and call it 15.

That means since 2005, the Red Wings have drafted 15 players who “made it” (by a generous definition of the term) in the NHL in the second through fifth rounds.  That list is as follows:

If you’re looking at a rebuild, are those the players you’re looking for?

The Red Wings’ draft record in the rounds where they’re targeting picks seems to show that they won’t be able to do what they’re trying to do.

Obviously not every draft is equal and, as I already mentioned, not every pick in the same round of the same draft is equal.  If the Wings grabbed another Tatar and Nyquist in the second round this summer – combined with a good pick in the first round – it’d be a successful draft.  But if adding all of these picks results in more Xavier Ouellets and Ryan Sprouls, it’ll just be a waste.

Frankly, I’d be a lot more comfortable if the asking price for Mike Green went back to being a first-rounder.


Update, 12:15 PM: Via Twitter, @RedWingRubbish pointed out that @ChartingHockey has statistically determined that, outside of the top 24 picks, quantity does indeed beat quality.

This made me take a second look at the first-rounders I dropped from my original list.

Player Year Overall
Jakub Kindl 2005 19
Dylan Larkin 2014 15
Anthony Mantha 2013 20
Tom McCollum 2008 30
Riley Sheahan 2010 21
Brendan Smith 2007 27
Evgeny Svechnikov 2015 19

If you should be able to reasonably expect a “hit” in the top-24, the Red Wings are still doing something wrong.

Kindl made it into 353 games but never really panned out.  Larkin and Mantha are the players the Red Wings are building around right now.  McCollum is a bust.  Sheahan seems to have maxed out as a third-line center.  Smith – somewhat like Kindl – has washed out of the NHL.  Svechnikov is still a question mark.

Seven first-round picks – five in the top 24 overall – and only two players that can reliably play in the top half of the lineup.  Will Svechnikov or Michael Rasmussen or Filip Hronek or Vili Saarijarvi join that list?  Perhaps.  So for the sake of discussion I’ll switch to the 2005 – 2014 date range.

That gives the Red Wings six first-round picks, four in the top 24, with a 50% “hit” rate.

Who are their hits through the other rounds?  Tatar.  Nyquist.  I think it’s safe to include Athanasiou.  Mrazek, too, despite his epic slump.

There are plenty of other useful players, guys like Abdelkader and Helm.  A team needs those guys.  But you can’t make a team of them, you need high-end talent to lead them.

Over a decade, the Red Wings managed to draft one starting goalie (assuming Mrazek has shaken that slump), no top-three defensemen, and five top-six forwards.  It’s worse if you don’t include Mrazek or Athanasiou.

So maybe it’s not about the Wings needing to get more first-round picks.  Maybe it’s that – contrary to the myth – the Red Wings just don’t draft very well.

I don’t want to dig in to compare them to other teams.  As I said originally, it’s near-impossible to find a team that picked near the Red Wings for that whole period to use as a comparison anyway.  Maybe San Jose?

If it’s that the Wings don’t draft well, and they’re putting everything they have into the draft, things could get ugly fast.

On the Blueline Logjam

It feels like this is a topic that comes up every year.  Throughout the entire Red Wings organization, there is a logjam at defense.

It’s been this way for several seasons.  The initial answer was that the team would trade defensive depth for help at forward but those trades never materialized.

Other moves have happened.  They did lose Alexey Marchenko on waivers to Toronto last season and then traded Brendan Smith to the New York Rangers.  Nathan Paetsch and Conor Allen chose to leave the Griffins for Rochester.  They also added Trevor Daley and sometimes-defenseman Luke Witkowski in Detroit while Filip Hronek and Vili Saarijarvi graduated from juniors to Grand Rapids.

This led to last night, where Hronek and Saarijarvi, two of the organization’s top prospects, couldn’t even crack the lineup for the Griffins’ home opener.

Some of that is politics, I’m sure.  You don’t send Ryan Sproul to Grand Rapids to have him sit there and the other five guys all played on the Griffins’ championship-winning team last year, so of course you dress them for the banner-raising.  But that you have to deal with issues like that shows a bigger problem.

When healthy, the Red Wings expect to be playing Danny DeKeyser,
Daley, Jonathan EricssonMike GreenNiklas Kronwall, and Nick Jensen.  Xavier Ouellet slots in as the seventh defenseman, and he filled in on opening night with Kronwall hurt, while Witkowski is your thirteenth forward or eighth defenseman (depending on injuries).

That pushes Ryan Sproul down to Grand Rapids, where he, Brian Lashoff, and Dylan McIlrath are the vets on the blueline.  That’s three spots out of six taken up by players who are legitimately no longer prospects.  Dan Renouf and Robbie Russo, who both made it into games in Detroit last season, come next, followed by Joe Hicketts.  Hronek and Saarijarvi have nowhere to play.

Oh, sure, there will be injuries.  And players will rotate in and out of the lineup.  But is that how you want these guys to start their pro careers?  Slotting in irregularly, hoping someone else gets hurt so they get a chance?

The organization has made no move to fix this.  In fact, they’ve only added to it by bringing back players such as Lashoff and McIlrath, opting for veteran leadership in Grand Rapids over a chance for their prospects to play.  In fact, if the rumored Riley Sheahan for Derrick Pouliot trade had gone through, it would have only made the situation worse.

This has been an issue for several seasons.  I can’t help but think that this is the year it becomes a big problem.

Red Wings Prospect Tournament Number Notes

The Detroit Red Wings announced their roster for the 2017 NHL Prospect Tournament on Friday and we’ve got some returning players who will be changing their jersey numbers.

Summer numbers can be somewhat volatile, so who knows what of these will stick for main camp.

Evgeny Svechnikov, who’s been wearing #37 with the Red Wings, is now shown wearing #77.  This matches the switch that he made with the Grand Rapids Griffins last season.  Dan Renouf had been assigned that number last season and is not appearing in the prospect tournament so we don’t know what change he might be making.

Dominic Turgeon has gone from #78 to #23.  This is somewhat interesting as veteran Brian Lashoff is still with the Red Wings’ organization and that number had been assigned to him.  Turgeon has traditionally worn #23 in honor of his sister.

Filip Hronek and Givani Smith, who wore numbers in the 80s in camp last summer, will wear #24 and #48, respectively.  Griffins captain Nathan Paetsch had worn #24 last year while Ryan Sproul abandoned #48 in his summer switch to #62.

Vili Saarijarvi, who lost his #28 to Luke Witkowski, switches to #29.  That will be his third camp number, having started with #71.

Axel Holmstrom, who had previously (and humorously) worn the #96 that formerly belong to Tomas Holmstrom, is now assigned #49.  Eric Tangradi had been assigned #49 so, like Lashoff, we’ll see if there’s a coming change there.

Dennis Cholowski is wearing #53 after wearing #2 at this summer’s development camp and #95 at last summer’s.  Jordan Sambrook, who had been wearing #95 after Cholowski, switches to #63.

Six 2017 draft picks will be appearing on the Red Wings’ tournament roster, with none of them keeping the numbers that they wore in July.  Michael Rasmussen switches from #37 to #27, taking the number that Joe Hicketts had been assigned.  Combined with Cholowski’s switch, I wonder if Hicketts will be assigned #2 in the main camp.  Lane Zablocki goes from #67 to the #46 worn in camp last year by Ben Street.  Reilly Webb switches from #84 to #50.  Zach Gallant goes from #73 to #64.  Brady Gilmour inverts #76 to #67.  Cole Fraser gets #74 instead of #85.

Wings Add Defenseman Witkowski

The Red Wings signed defenseman Luke Witkowski from the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday at the opening of NHL free agency.

The move comes paired with the signing of veteran defenseman Trevor Daley from the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Assuming Witkowski isn’t bound for the Grand Rapids Griffins, it gives the Red Wings nine defensemen on their roster.

Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press reports that the team may shift Witkowski to forward.

Witkowski, a native of Holland, Michigan, captained the Syracuse Crunch team that the Griffins defeated in the Calder Cup Finals for the first half of the season.  After being called up to the Tampa Bay Lighting, he could not be returned to the team for the playoffs.

I don’t like this move.

As a defenseman, Witkowski doesn’t seem to provide anything that the recently re-signed Dylan McIlrath can’t.  If he makes the Wings’ roster, it’s at the expense of Xavier Ouellet or Ryan Sproul.  If he’s in Grand Rapids, he’s taking a roster spot from Joe Hicketts or Filip Hronek or Robbie Russo or Dan Renouf, or forcing Vili Saarijarvi back to juniors.

As a forward…  Why not just sign a forward?  Why not give Tyler Bertuzzi a shot?

Update, 5:25 PM:  I completely missed this earlier but the Red Wings announced this as a two-year deal.

The official press release did not include term and seemingly all other outlets continue to report it as a one-year deal but it’s probably safe to trust the official Twitter account.

2016 NHL Entry Draft Recap/Notes

The Red Wings closed out the 2016 NHL Entry Draft on Saturday, making six selections in addition to their pick of defenseman Dennis Cholowski on Friday night.

Of course, this draft can’t just be measured by the picks. The biggest move general manager Ken Holland pulled off – probably his biggest move in years – was unloading Pavel Datsyuk‘s contract on the Arizona Coyotes on Friday night.

On paper, it looks like an incredible deal. The Red Wings lost Datsyuk’s cap hit, had to take on the contract of a player who will probably be LTIRetired, moved down four spots in the first round, and added a second round draft pick. Moving down four picks to add a second rounder is a total Ken Holland move. The financial win is a bonus at that point.

That said, the move wasn’t made just on paper. The pick the Wings gave up could have been used on defensemen Jakub Chychrun or Dante Fabbro, both highly-touted prospects. Instead, they ended up with Cholowski and Czech blueliner Filip Hronek. Quantity does not make up for quality there. All picks are hit or miss but the guys the Wings got are much more of a gamble than the ones they passed up.

So, in the end, you have Datsyuk’s contract unloaded in return for taking a gamble in the draft instead of something much closer to a sure-thing. And unloading Datsyuk’s contract is necessary so they can take a gamble on a big-name free agent signing with the team. It’s gamble upon gamble but I think it’s the right move. The worst-case scenario is that Cholowski and Hronek don’t pan out, Chychrun wins a Norris Trophy, and the Wings don’t sign anyone this summer.

As for the picks themselves, this is what the Wings walked away with…

Dennis Cholowski, Defense, 1st Round (20th Overall)
A smart defenseman who the Red Wings like for his skating ability. Is still relatively raw but will have four years at St. Cloud State to develop before even joining the Detroit organization.

Givani Smith, Forward, 2nd Round (46th Overall)
Gritty forward (Tyler Wright says he “plays nasty”) who also scored 23 goals on an awful Guelph Storm team last season. Models himself after Philadelphia forward Wayne Simmonds.

Filip Hronek, Defense, 2nd Round (53rd Overall)
Smallish defenseman who can move the puck. Will have to get bigger to make it in the NHL.

Alfons Malmstrom, Defense, 4th Round (107th Overall)
No one but Hakan Andersson seems to know anything about this guy, so I’m taking that as a good thing.

Jordan Sambrook, Defense, 5th Round (137th Overall)
Another smooth-skating defenseman. He describes himself as a two-way player. Played for the Erie Otters of the OHL last season.

Filip Larsson, Goaltender, 6th Round (167th Overall)
A little bit of an odd pick, which makes it interesting to me, as the Wings traditionally select a goalie every-other year and this marks three years in a row having picked one. I think this is a matter of restarting the goalie pipeline, as they’re probably going to lose Tom McCollum this summer, meaning Jared Coreau and Jake Paterson are the tandem in Grand Rapids. Next year Jimmy Howard goes to Las Vegas in the expansion draft, Coreau moves up, and Paterson starts in GR. Chase Perry basically rebooted his career so who knows when he’ll be ready. Joren van Pottelberghe is signed for awhile in Europe so he may or may not make the jump. Why not gamble with a late pick to add to that pool?

Mattias Elfstrom, Forward, 7th Round (197th Overall)
Only the second forward picked by the Red Wings. Seemingly another Hakan Andersson pick. Apparently he’s fast and big. Of note, it looks like no publication has a birthplace for him. Sweden is a big place.