On Draft Pick Quantity vs. Quality

After trading Petr Mrazek to the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday night, Red Wings general manager Ken Holland said something that triggered a gut reaction of concern in me.  I honestly don’t know if there are numbers to back up my worry, so I’m going to walk through it a bit.

“What’s driving me is I want us to be a team that can compete for the Stanley Cup. We’re competitive, but we’re not quite where we need to be in order to be where we want to be. I have to acquire draft picks and we need to hit on those draft picks.

“The more draft picks I can acquire, or young players through trades, is a better chance we’re going to wake up three or four or five years from now, or two years from now, and start to see young players coming on to the team and have an impact.”

That’s from the Detroit News but Winging it in Motown highlighted it this morning.  It also comes coupled with rumblings that the Red Wings may accept two second round picks for Mike Green rather than a first-rounder.

It’s well-known that the Red Wings haven’t had many high draft picks in the last several decades.  Trying to find a team that has consistently picked near the Wings in the draft even just going back to the big lockout in 2005 is impossible.  They’re in a relatively unique situation that has – to a large extent – led to their current downswing, as they haven’t been able to restock their talent pool with top prospects.

Knowing that – yet hearing Holland declare than the answer is to acquire more second, third, and fourth round draft picks – is triggering my spidey sense, so to speak.  If the team’s downfall is because they never pick at the top, how is the path to a rebuild through the second and third and fourth rounds?

Let me take a second to acknowledge that defining picks by round is somewhat lazy.  The 32nd overall pick and the 62nd overall pick this summer will both be second-rounders but they’re not really comparable.  As such, while I’m attempting to apply some logic to this, it’s entirely unscientific.

With that in mind, I’ve been looking back at Detroit’s recent drafts, trying to determine just how good the organization is at making use of picks outside of the first round.  I went back to the 2005 draft as the salary cap era is really when the Wings were no longer able to replenish their roster via free agency.

Detroit has had 95 draft picks in that time.  Thus far, 33 of them have played at least one NHL game.  Yes, that measure means there’s built-in bias against recent drafts, as those players haven’t had the chance to make their debuts.

Eliminate the first-rounders, since we’re talking about what the Wings can do if they don’t acquire extra picks in the opening round, and we’re down to 26 players.  We might as well drop the sixth- and seventh-rounders, too, since no one has claimed you rebuild with those.  That’s another four gone, so we’re at 22.

Of those, only 14 are still in the NHL, though that leaves out Dominic Turgeon, who got a call-up earlier this year and is now back with the Griffins, so let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and call it 15.

That means since 2005, the Red Wings have drafted 15 players who “made it” (by a generous definition of the term) in the NHL in the second through fifth rounds.  That list is as follows:

If you’re looking at a rebuild, are those the players you’re looking for?

The Red Wings’ draft record in the rounds where they’re targeting picks seems to show that they won’t be able to do what they’re trying to do.

Obviously not every draft is equal and, as I already mentioned, not every pick in the same round of the same draft is equal.  If the Wings grabbed another Tatar and Nyquist in the second round this summer – combined with a good pick in the first round – it’d be a successful draft.  But if adding all of these picks results in more Xavier Ouellets and Ryan Sprouls, it’ll just be a waste.

Frankly, I’d be a lot more comfortable if the asking price for Mike Green went back to being a first-rounder.


Update, 12:15 PM: Via Twitter, @RedWingRubbish pointed out that @ChartingHockey has statistically determined that, outside of the top 24 picks, quantity does indeed beat quality.

This made me take a second look at the first-rounders I dropped from my original list.

Player Year Overall
Jakub Kindl 2005 19
Dylan Larkin 2014 15
Anthony Mantha 2013 20
Tom McCollum 2008 30
Riley Sheahan 2010 21
Brendan Smith 2007 27
Evgeny Svechnikov 2015 19

If you should be able to reasonably expect a “hit” in the top-24, the Red Wings are still doing something wrong.

Kindl made it into 353 games but never really panned out.  Larkin and Mantha are the players the Red Wings are building around right now.  McCollum is a bust.  Sheahan seems to have maxed out as a third-line center.  Smith – somewhat like Kindl – has washed out of the NHL.  Svechnikov is still a question mark.

Seven first-round picks – five in the top 24 overall – and only two players that can reliably play in the top half of the lineup.  Will Svechnikov or Michael Rasmussen or Filip Hronek or Vili Saarijarvi join that list?  Perhaps.  So for the sake of discussion I’ll switch to the 2005 – 2014 date range.

That gives the Red Wings six first-round picks, four in the top 24, with a 50% “hit” rate.

Who are their hits through the other rounds?  Tatar.  Nyquist.  I think it’s safe to include Athanasiou.  Mrazek, too, despite his epic slump.

There are plenty of other useful players, guys like Abdelkader and Helm.  A team needs those guys.  But you can’t make a team of them, you need high-end talent to lead them.

Over a decade, the Red Wings managed to draft one starting goalie (assuming Mrazek has shaken that slump), no top-three defensemen, and five top-six forwards.  It’s worse if you don’t include Mrazek or Athanasiou.

So maybe it’s not about the Wings needing to get more first-round picks.  Maybe it’s that – contrary to the myth – the Red Wings just don’t draft very well.

I don’t want to dig in to compare them to other teams.  As I said originally, it’s near-impossible to find a team that picked near the Red Wings for that whole period to use as a comparison anyway.  Maybe San Jose?

If it’s that the Wings don’t draft well, and they’re putting everything they have into the draft, things could get ugly fast.

Thoughts on the Red Wings’ Trade Deadline

I was feeling pretty good about the Red Wings’ efforts in the lead up to the NHL’s trade deadline this morning.  Then the Thomas Vanek trade happened.  Those who follow DH.N on Twitter know I am less than happy about that but I’ll look at each of the Wings’ moves piece-by-piece here.

Tomas Jurco
The Red Wings traded Tomas Jurco to the Chicago Blackhawks last Friday.  An upcoming restricted free agent, Jurco never really latched on with the Red Wings.  Detroit got a third-round pick in the deal, which is more than I would have expected.

I don’t think Jurco was ever used properly in Detroit so it hurts to see him go to Chicago, but if the Wings weren’t going to use him, at least they got some value for him.  This is a pretty solid deal.

Brendan Smith
The first of Detroit’s pending unrestricted free agents, the team tried to sign him to a contract extension but the trade offer from the New York Rangers was too much to turn down.  Smith netted the Red Wings a third-round pick in the upcoming 2017 NHL Entry Draft and a second-round pick in 2018.

This was Detroit’s best move of the week.  I probably would have been happy with a second or a third, to get both feels like larceny.  That said, like Jurco, perhaps Smith just needs a change of scenery.  It’s not that he was particularly bad this year in Detroit, but he’s weighed down by the expectations and the memory of bad performances.

Steve Ott
I never liked Ott’s signing, that’s no secret.  I don’t know why the Canadiens thought they needed him, either.  He wasn’t horrible in Detroit by any means, I just think his role could have been filled by one of the kids in Grand Rapids, namely Tyler Bertuzzi or Tomas Nosek.  Getting a sixth-round pick for Ott seems like a near-miracle.

Thomas Vanek
I’m going to need more space for this one.

Nick Jensen
Not a trade, the Red Wings locked up Jensen for two more years at around $800,000 each.  Jensen has stepped onto the Wings’ blue line and seemingly leapfrogged both Ryan Sproul and Xavier Ouellet (and definitely Alexey Marchenko, now in Toronto).

I like this signing for multiple reasons.  One, it’s only two years, unlike the ridiculous four-year deal that Brian Lashoff got after serving in a similar capacity back during the lockout-shortened 2013 campaign.  Two, it can entirely be buried in the minors if Jensen ends up being a bust or if the Wings acquire a legitimate top defenseman at some point.

Mitch Callahan
With Ott off to Montreal, the Red Wings called up forward Mitch Callahan to take his place.  I’m okay with this but I’d rather have seen Bertuzzi get the nod, as I mentioned above (Nosek is currently injured and wouldn’t be called up).

Drew Miller
The trade that didn’t happen.  I don’t know if anyone was interested in Miller but he’s the one upcoming unrestricted free agent that Holland was unable to unload.  Part of me thinks that if you can unload Ott, you can unload Miller.  But maybe the Habs were the only team interested in a guy like that.

Thomas Vanek
Okay, let’s try this one again…

Vanek had to be dealt.  He’s been one of the Wings’ best players this season and is an unrestricted free agent this summer, so it was assumed that he had significant value.  At the end of the day, it sounds like there weren’t that many teams interested, though, and he only fetched a third-round draft pick (plus AHLer Dylan McIlrath, minus retaining some salary).  That the Wings got the best deal they could get is good.

It’s kind of hard to see that for multiple reasons, though.  There was a lot of buzz about Vanek in the lead up to the deadline and Minnesota made a massive deal for Martin Hanzal, a player deemed to be somewhat comparable to Vanek.  You don’t trade buzz, though.  The best player the Red Wings had to offer simply wasn’t enough to generate that much interest.

Winging it in Motown’s JJ from Kansas has been talking about getting caught up in the hype about Vanek.  Take a look at Detroit’s history as buyers, though, and it’s hard not to.

In 2015 the Wings gave up a solid prospect in Mattias Janmark, a questionable prospect in Mattias Backman, and a second round pick for Erik Cole and a third rounder.  In 2014 Detroit traded Calle Jarnkrok, Patrick Eaves, and a third round pick for David Legwand.

In my mind, 2017 Thomas Vanek is better than 2015 Erik Cole or 2014 David Legwand, so I would expect 2017 Thomas Vanek to bring in more than 2015 Erik Cole or 2014 David Legwand.  But that’s not what this year’s market supported.

So it’s disappointing that costs are high when the Wings are buyers but they’re low when they’re sellers.  It’s hard to swallow.  It feels like if the Wings should have to sell, they should get to sell for the same prices that all the teams that profited from them got to sell at.

Overall
All of that said, the Wings did the best that they could with what they had.  In sheer volume of picks, the last week has been a pretty impressive haul.

I’m not as excited about the upcoming draft as Ken Holland is, though.  Holland has spoken about having so many picks to work with, more than they’ve had since 2002.  This draft is shallow and none of those picks are particularly high.  As such, I don’t see this sell off as sparking a rebuild.  Barring some big changes this summer, I don’t think the assets gained in the last week are going to turn things around next year.

Guest Post: 2014 NHL Entry Draft Preview

Editor’s Note: Michael Petrella (@TPLHockey) of the dearly-departed Production Line joins us to offer the latest in his annual series of NHL Entry Draft previews. Any formatting issues are mine, not his.


2014 NHL DRAFT TRUTHS
Generally speaking, the 2014 Draft isn’t as “deep” as we’ve come to expect. It’s not as strong as last year’s — and don’t even get me started on the 2015 Draft, which is shaping up to the best in a generation. The top of this year’s Draft board is every bit as talented as you’d hope, but there’s a very sharp drop into the second tier.

Let’s put it this way: there’s no Anthony Mantha available at 20th overall this June.

While the top player in the Draft may very well be a defenseman (Aaron Ekblad), the bulk of the first round is going to be made up of forwards. In fact, after Ekblad, there’s a significant drop off to the second best defenseman — and there may only be 3-5 blueliners selected in the top 30. If a team needs a defenseman, and they don’t get Ekblad at one or two, they’re kind of screwed.

Luckily for the Red Wings, there are plenty of centers on the board — and it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to know that that’s the position they’re likely looking at. After trading Calle Jarnkrok to Nashville, and promoting Riley Sheahan to the Red Wings, there’s not a ton of depth down the middle, particularly since Mattias Janmark‘s permanent arrival in North America doesn’t appear to be imminent. Aside from Landon Ferraro and newly signed collegiate free agent Colin Campbell, neither of whom seem like they’ll factor into the big team’s plans, the center cupboard is dry.

DETROIT RED WINGS STRATEGY
The Wings don’t always keep their first round draft pick. During the late 90’s and early 00’s, they would often trade their top pick for immediate help. And while that practice has (mostly) been abandoned, it’s not unusual for the Wings to trade their top pick for a package of lower picks (several examples of which are below). With this Draft structured the way it is, it may be wise to employ that strategy again. There are a couple guys I like at 15, but if they’re not around, the group between 20 and 40 are largely equal.

2013 — Traded their 1st round pick (18th – Mirco Mueller) to San Jose for 20th (Anthony Mantha) and 58th (Tyler Bertuzzi).

2011 — Traded their 1st round pick (24th — Matt Puempel) to Ottawa for 35th (Tomas Jurco) and 48th (Xavier Ouellet).

2009 — Traded their 1st round pick (29th — Carter Ashton) to Tampa Bay for 32nd (Landon Ferraro) and 75th (Andrej Nestrasil).

2006 — Traded their 1st round pick (26th — Chris Summers) and 5th round pick (152nd — Jordan Bendfeld) to Phoenix for 41st (Cory Emmerton) and 47th (Shawn Matthias).

The stock of defensive prospects that the Red Wings have at their disposal is quite impressive. From Ouellet to Sproul to Marchenko to Almquist to Backman to Jensen, there’s no shortage of potential NHLers in the bunch. But, if the Penguins have taught us anything, it’s that you can never have too many blue chip blueliner prospects — even if they’re not going to be on the NHL squad, they’re valuable assets that can be moved for other assets. While there may not be a ton of potential first rounders, the collection of second round defensemen is vast — and if the Wings pick up a second (they currently do not have one), it may serve them well to pick one of the D that finds itself amassed in that group.

Another trend worth noting is their every-other-year-draft-a-goalie trend. I can’t remember who said it, but the Wings admitted to selecting a goaltender in every other draft to keep that cupboard full. After drafting Jimmy Howard in 2003, the trend started in ‘06:

2012 — Jake Paterson (3rd)
2010 — Petr Mrazek (5th)
2008 — Thomas McCollum (1st)
2006 — Daniel Larsson (3rd)

Obviously, this is the every-other year, so I would expect the Wings to take a goaltender in the mid to late rounds, and it almost has to be a collegiate-bound goaltender, since you get longer to sign them than junior players. The reason for this is that Mrazek and Paterson will BOTH be out of waiver exemption before Jimmy Howard’s contract expires… adding another goaltender to that logjam would not be wise.

FIRST ROUND OPTIONS
While it’s not guaranteed that they’ll select a center in the first round, I’d say it’s a fair bet. Here are ten guys to keep an eye on — more information can be found below in the prospect rankings. I have ranked them in an order that’s a mixture of “likelihood to be available” and how much I like them as a fit for the Wings.

1. Alex Tuch — USNTDP, Boston College commit — 6’3, 222
2. Dylan Larkin — USNTDP, University of Michigan commit — 6’1, 190
3. Jared McCann — Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL) — 6′, 179
4. Sonny Milano — USNTDP, Boston College commit — 5’10, 159
5. Nick Schmaltz — Green Bay (USHL), North Dakota commit — 6’0, 172
6. Connor Bleackley — Red Deer Rebels (WHL) — 6’0, 192
7. Robbie Fabbri — Guelph Storm (OHL) — 5’10, 166
8. Jakub Vrana — Linkoping (SWE) — 5’11, 185
9. Kevin Fiala — Malmo (SWE) — 5’10, 165
10. Ryan MacInnis — Kitchener Rangers (OHL) — 6’4, 185

The top seven or eight will likely be selected in the first round. The others, however, are likely to slide into the second round. If the Wings prefer one of those guys, they’ll likely trade down as they so often do.

BONUS DRAFT PICK OPTIONS
Without knowing the rest of the Draft order, it’s hard to say who the Wings may make a deal with, but let’s pretend they trade with someone like Anaheim to get the 28th and 38th (keep in mind that the Draft order won’t be set until after the remainder of the playoffs, so these numbers are just educated estimates) or Buffalo (31st, 39th, and 50th). The following players may be available and would be attractive Red Wings picks.

DEFENSE
1. Jack Dougherty — USNTDP, University of Wisconsin commit — 6’2, 185 (Right Handed)
2. Jack Glover — USNTDP, University of Minnesota commit — 6’4, 190 (Right Handed)
3. Brycen Martin — Swift Current Broncos (WHL) — 6’2, 182 (Left Handed)
4. Alex Peters — Plymouth Whalers (OHL) — 6’4, 207 (Left Handed)
5. Marcus Petterson — Skelleftea (SWE) — 6’3, 161 (Left Handed)
6. Alex Vanier — Baie-Comeau Brakkar (QMJHL) — 6’5, 224 (Left Handed)

FORWARD
1. Anton Karlsson — Frolunda (SWE) — 6’1, 189
2. John Quenneville — Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) — 6’1, 185
3. Eric Cornel — Peterborough Petes (OHL) — 6’1, 186
4. Chase DeLeo — Portland Winterhawks (WHL) — 5’9, 177
5. Shane Eiserman — USNTDP, University of New Hampshire commit — 6’2, 201

GOALTENDING OPTIONS
As mentioned above, I don’t think the Wings use a first, second, or third round pick on a goaltender, but I do believe that they’ll select one at some point. I focused solely on collegiate goalies, for reasons listed, and here are some names to check out. Of the six listed, only the top two are guaranteed to be drafted, and they may very well be around in the fourth round. While the others can be offered invitations to camp, they cannot be signed to contracts because of their collegiate commitments. The only way to guarantee they remain Red Wings property is to select them in the Draft.

1. Ed Minney — USNTDP, Michigan State commit — 6’4, 201
2. Black Weyrick — USNTDP, Brown commit — 6’2, 201
3. Chase Perry — Wenatchee Wild (NAHL), Colorado College commit — 6’2, 163
4. Hayden Lavigne — Tri-City Storm (USHL), Michigan commit — 6’3, 181
5. Kasimir Kaskisuo — Minnesota Wilderness (NAHL), Minnesota-Duluth commit — 6’2, 185
6. Zach Nagelvoort — University of Michigan — 6’2, 190

Nagelvoort is already enrolled, and therefore would need to be signed in three years. The others get all four years of college eligibility before necessitating an entry level deal.

PLAYER RANKINGS – TOP 75

1 – Aaron Ekblad – D – Barrie Colts (OHL) – 6’4 – 215 – Canada
He was the first defenseman ever to be granted “exceptional player status” by the Canadian Hockey League, allowing him to compete in Juniors a year earlier than his peers. At the time, he was only the second player ever granted such status (Tavares was the first).

2 – Sam Reinhart – C – Kootenay Ice (WHL) – 6’1 – 185 – Canada
Even though this has been The Ekblad Draft for several years, Sam (son of former NHLer Paul) Reinhart has made up the ground and may very well be the top pick. It all depends what the Panthers want to do with their lottery win.

3 – Sam Bennett – W – Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) – 6′ – 178 – Canada
And playing the role of Jonathan Drouin this year is Sam Bennett — a guy who, all of a sudden, found himself atop the CSS Rankings to deflect attention from the fact that this is a two-horse race yet again. He’s still a hell of a hockey player, don’t get me wrong, but he doesn’t leap the other two if common sense prevails.

4 – Leon Draisatl – W – Prince Albert Raiders (WHL) – 6’2 – 208 – Germany
The top European player in this year’s Draft. Even though he’s German, he came to North America to play in the WHL with Prince Albert, presumably to play against better talent than is available in the German junior leagues. Or pro leagues, for that matter.

5 – Michael Dal Colle – W – Oshawa Generals (OHL) – 6’2 – 179 – Canada
Steadily rose throughout the rankings all season before becoming a consensus top five pick. Nice size and smart with a great shot. He’s a hell of a player considering someone may get him at five.

6 – Brendan Perlini – W – Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL) – 6’3 – 205 – Canada
Fast, smart, and smooth — not to mention a great frame. Dangerous scorer, and responsible in the other two zones.

7 – Nikolaj Ehlers – W – Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) – 6′ – 170 – Denmark
Probabaly the closest thing to Mantha in this year’s Draft. Certainly doesn’t have Mantha’s girth, but he scores practically at will in the Q, and came on very strong during the season. Rose from a potential second rounder to (on some lists) a potential top five pick.

8 – Nick Ritchie – W – Peterborough Petes (OHL) – 6’2 – 231 – Canada
Power-forward, huge frame. Big brother was selected 44th overall by Dallas in 2011, and Nick will certainly one-up him at this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.

9 – Jake Virtanen – W – Calgary Hitmen (WHL) – 6’1 – 208 – Canada
He’s the whole package: quick, nice shot, good hands. He may very well go higher than 9, but won’t slip much lower.

10 – Kasperi Kapanen – W – Kapla (FIN) – 6′ – 180 – Finland
Sami’s son (YOU’RE OLD!), he’s the best Draft-eligible player from Finland this year. He’s not as big as some others, but he uses his size well and is quite slippery.

11 – Haydn Fleury – D – Red Deer Rebels (WHL) – 6’3 – 198 – Canada
The second-best defenseman in the Draft, his first name really is spelled that way. Physical and not afraid to shoot.

12 – William Nylander – W – MODO (SWE) – 5’11 – 169 – Sweden
At one point was considered a potential #1 pick, knocking Ekblad down to #2, but has dropped a bit in recent months. Son of former NHLer Michael Nylander.

13 – Jared McCann – C – Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) – 6′ – 179 – Canada
Not as big as some of the other centers available, he’s been a steady riser throughout the season. Nice two-way player that would certainly strike the Wings’ fancy.

14 – Nikita Scherbak – W – Saskatoon Blades (WHL) – 6′ – 172 – Russia
I love, love, love Scherbak more than most seem to. He is Russian, but he’s playing in the WHL. He’s probably the fastest player in the Draft (we’re talkin’ Helm fast), and has an unbelievable shot. If the Wings weren’t in desperate need of a center, I’d be a huge proponent of this pick.

15 – Alex Tuch – C – US NTDP – 6’3 – 222 – United States
While it’s possible he goes top ten, the Boston College commit has nice size and forechecks well.

16 – David Pastrnak – W – Sodertalje (SWE) – 6′ – 167 – Czech Rep
His name may sound familiar if you watched the World Junior Championship this season. He played well for the Czechs and will be a first round pick.

17 – Thatcher Demko – G – Boston College – 6’4 – 192 – United States
The top goaltender in the Draft is already manning the nets for powerhouse BC. It’s possible that no one picks a goaltender in the first round, but if there’s one taken, it’ll be this guy.

18 – Nick Schmaltz – C – Green Bay (USHL) – 6′ – 172 – United States
Another potential Wings pick is heading to North Dakota to play collegiate hockey. I’m less excited about him than Tuch or McCann, but Nick (brother of Jordan) Schmaltz will be a player.

19 – Dylan Larkin – C – US NTDP – 6’1 – 190 – United States
Heading to the University of Michigan in the fall, and it’s fair to assume that he — OR one of the three most recently mentioned centers — will be available at 15.

20 – Sonny Milano – C – US NTDP – 5’10 – 159 – United States
Here’s a funny one. He’s heading to Boston College (who know how to pick ‘em), and had an absolutely bananas U18 Worlds tournament, co-leading the champion United States in scoring with ‘15 phenom Jack Eichel (with whom he’ll be playing at BC). If there’s one guy that might jump up the rankings in the final two months before the Draft, this is it.

21 – Julius Honka – D – Swift Current Broncos (WHL) – 5’11 – 178 – Finland
22 – Ivan Barbashev – W – Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) – 6’1 – 185 – Russia
23 – Josh Ho-Sang – C – Windsor Spitfires (OHL) – 5’11 – 166 – Canada
24 – Roland McKeown – D – Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) – 6’1 – 197 – Canada
25 – Brendan Lemieux – W – Barrie Colts (OHL) – 6′ – 211 – Canada
26 – Kevin Fiala – W – Malmo (SWE) – 5’10 – 165 – Switzerland
27 – Anthony DeAngelo – D – Sarnia Sting (OHL) – 5’11 – 165 – United States
28 – Connor Bleackley – C – Red Deer Rebels (WHL) – 6′ – 192 – Canada
29 – Robbie Fabbri – C – Guelph Storm (OHL) – 5’10 – 166 – Canada
30 – Jakub Vrana – W – Linkoping (SWE) – 5’11 – 185 – Czech Rep

31 – Nikolai Goldobin – W – Sarnia Sting (OHL) – 6′ – 178 – Russia
32 – Adrian Kempe – C – Modo (SWE) – 6’2 – 187 – Sweden
33 – Ryan MacInnis – C – Kitchener Rangers (OHL) – 6’4 – 185 – United States
34 – Jack Dougherty – D – USNTDP/Univ. of Wisconsin – 6’2 – 185 – United States
35 – Anton Karlsson – W – Frolunda (SEL) – 6’1 – 189 – Sweden
36 – Brayden Point – C – Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL) – 5’9 – 161 – Canada
37 – John Quenneville – C – Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) – 6’1 – 185 – Canada
38 – Marcus Pettersson – D – Skelleftea (SWE) – 6’3 – 161 – Sweden
39 – Jack Glover – D – USNTDP/Univ. of Minnesota – 6’4 – 190 – United States
40 – Brycen Martin – D – Swift Current Broncos (WHL) – 6’2 – 182 – Canada
41 – Eric Cornel – C – Peterborough Petes (OHL) – 6’1 – 186 – Canada
42 – Chase DeLeo – C – Portland Winterhawks (OHL) – 5’9 – 177 – United States
43 – Daniel Audette – C – Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) – 5’8 – 178 – Canada
44 – Shane Eiserman – W – USNTDP/Univ. of NH – 6’2 – 201 – United States
45 – Ondrej Kase – W – Chomutov (CZE) – 5’11 – 165 – Czech Rep
46 – Spencer Watson – W – Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) – 5’10 – 185 – Canada
47 – Matt Mistele – W – Plymouth Whalers (OHL) – 6’2 – 183 – Canada
48 – Oskar Lindblom – W – Brynas (SWE) – 6’1 – 191 – Sweden
49 – Ryan Collins – D – USNTDP/Univ. of Michigan – 6’4 – 179 – United States
50 – Alex Peters – D – Plymouth Whalers (OHL) – 6’4 – 207 – Canada
51 – Tyson Baillie – C – Kamloops Blazers (WHL) – 5’10 – 185 – Canada
52 – Alex Nedeljkovic – G – Plymouth Whalers (OHL) – 6′ – 184 – United States
53 – Blake Clarke – W – Saginaw Spirit (OHL) – 6’1 – 199 – United States
54 – Hunter Smith – W – Oshawa Generals (OHL) – 6’7 – 208 – Canada
55 – Christian Dvorak – W – London Knights (OHL) – 6′ – 179 – United States
56 – Ryan Donato – C – Dexter HS/Harvard – 6′ – 176 – United States
57 – Alex Vanier – D – Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL) – 6’5 – 225 – Canada
58 – Jon Duchesne – D – Ottawa 67’s (OHL) – 6′ – 205 – Canada
59 – Ville Husso – G – HIFK (FIN) – 6’2 – 192 – Finland
60 – Jonathan MacLeod – D – USNTDP/Boston Univ. – 6’1 – 179 – United States

61 – Aaron Haydon – D – Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL) – 6’3 – 190 – United States
62 – Aaron Irving – D – Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL) – 6’1 – 190 – Canada
63 – Connor Chatham – W – Plymouth Whalers (OHL) – 6’3 – 225 – United States
64 – Warren Foegele – W – St. Andrews HS/UNH – 6’1 – 183 – Canada
65 – Arkhip Nekolenko – W – Spartak (KHL) – 6’1 – 159 – Russia
66 – Adam Brooks – C – Regina Pats (WHL) – 5’10 – 170 – Canada
67 – Ben Thomas – D – Calgary Hitmen (WHL) – 6’2 – 194 – Canada
68 – Jake Walman – D – Toronto Jr./Providence – 6’1 – 174 – Canada
69 – Brook Hiddink – C – Plymouth Whalers (OHL) – 5’11 – 194 – Canada
70 – Patrik Koys – W – Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) – 5’9 – 170 – Czech Rep
71 – Andreas Englund – D – Djurgarden (SWE) – 6’3 – 190 – Sweden
72 – Jayce Hawrlyuk – C – Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) – 5’10 – 188 – Canada
73 – Justin Kirkland – W – Calgary Hitmen (WHL) – 6’3 – 181 – Canada
74 – Pavel Kraskovsky – F – Yaroslavl (KHL) – 6’4 – 181 – Russia
75 – Shayne Gersich – F – USNTDP/North Dakota – 5’11 – 172 – United States

NOTES AND BLOODLINES
#25 Brendan Lemieux is Claude’s son. Oof.
#27 Anthony DeAngelo has been suspended TWICE for using slurs against other players.
#33 Ryan MacInnis is Al MacInnis’ son. Inherited daddy’s slapshot, but plays forward.
#35 Anton Karlsson is Ottawa Senators star Erik’s brother.
#37 John Quenneville is Coach Joel Quenneville’s cousin.
#43 Daniel Audette is Donald Audette’s son.
#54 Hunter Smith is the tallest Draft-eligible player and is projected by some to go in 1st.
#55 Christian Dvorak is not related to former NHLer Radek.
#56 Ryan Donato is former NHLer Ted’s son.
#58 Jon Duchesne is not related to former Red Wing Steve.
#72 Jayce Hawrlyuk was briefly hospitalized after collapsing for unknown reasons.

MOCK DRAFT :: APRIL 28TH

1 – Florida Panthers – Aaron Ekblad – D
When the Panthers won the lottery and moved up to #1, the argument immediately became Ekblad or Reinhart. They have a bevy of nice young forwards, including Jonathan Huberdeau and last year’s second overall pick Aleksander Barkov. They’re a little light on the back end and Ekblad will be the franchise defenseman they’ve lacked forever.

2 – Buffalo Sabres – Sam Reinhart – C
The Sabres need a little bit of everything, so to land a player that many think is the best in the Draft is a big deal, particularly after the emotional let-down of losing out on the Lottery. They slide into the player they likely would have selected had they won the top pick.

3 – Edmonton Oilers (trade for D likely if Ekblad gone) – Sam Bennett – W
I believe that the Oilers will try to move this pick unless, somehow, Ekblad slides down to three. The Oilers need defensemen, and have no need whatsoever for another young forward. If they can package this pick (and maybe one of those forwards) for an established blueliner, that’s what they’ll do. If they end up picking, it’ll likely be the consensus “other top player” available.

4 – Calgary Flames – Michael Dal Colle – W
So the top three players are off the board, no matter who’s picking, leaving the Flames and their new GM Brad Treliving. The Flames may go center since they have a little more prospect depth at the wing, but Dal Colle would be a tough guy to pass on.

5 – New York Islanders (potentially to Buffalo) – Leon Draisaitl – W
The Islanders are obligated to trade EITHER this pick or their first round pick in 2015 to Buffalo to complete the Vanek deal. If I’m the Islanders, I move this pick. While it’s unlikely that the Islanders both miss the playoffs AND win the lottery next season, the 2015 Draft is way too good to gamble with. Imagine keeping this pick (which is relatively weak for a Top 5 pick), and somehow getting the chance to pick McDavid or Eichel next summer. That’s a fate I don’t wish on anyone. A decision must be made by June 1st.

6 – Vancouver Canucks – Jake Virtanen – W
The Canucks need a right winger real bad. According to Hockey’s Future, only two of their prospects play the right side and only one of them is a surefire NHLer. Virtanen immediately fills that void and helps to rebuild a prospect base.

7 – Carolina Hurricanes – Kasperi Kapanen – W
New Hurricanes GM Ron Francis will likely be looking to make a splash, and who better than former teammate Sami Kapanen’s hotshot son? Kapanen may not be ranked as highly as this, but it’s a can’t-lose pick from a PR standpoint, and he’s a heck of a player to boot.

8 – Toronto Maple Leafs – Brendan Perlini – W
We’re starting to get into “best available” territory and Perlini is a great pick for the Leafs at number 8. For a team that has trouble playing both ways, he’s a nice player to start to right the ship organizationally.

9 – Winnipeg Jets – Nikoaj Ehlers – W
The Jets would do a backflip if they landed Ehlers without moving up, and they very well may. The best pure scorer in the Draft, he’d immediately be the top prospect in the organization and would look real good playing with Mark Schiefele for ten years.

10 – Anaheim Ducks (via Ottawa) – Nick Ritchie – C
It’s kind of a bummer that one of the top teams in the NHL also get a top ten pick, but that’s what happens when you make savvy trades. Since this is basically a bonus, you almost have to take the best available player — and the Ducks should be comfortable with their prospects on the back end and in goal. A big center fits their mold to a T.

11 – Nashville Predators – William Nylander – W
The Predators’ organizational strength lies down the middle, and some nice prospects on the left wing. The right wing position is a little thin, and though Nylander has fallen down the rankings a little bit, they’d be lucky to snatch him up without a top ten pick.

12 – Phoenix Coyotes – Jared McCann – C
Like the Predators, the Coyotes have a strong group of centers coming down the pipe. While it’s possible they look to the wing with this pick, the next half-dozen or so forwards are going to be centers. Defense is also possible, but arguably their best prospect (Brandon Gormley) plays back there.

13 – Washington Capitals – Haydn Fleury – D
The Capitals actually have some pretty decent stock in all areas, but if they’re thin anywhere it’s on the blueline. To get the second-best defenseman in the Draft without giving anything up would be exciting for them.

14 – Dallas Stars – Alex Tuch – C
The Stars are a nice young team, but the top of their prospect pool is a little bit lacking. Jim Nill is a Draft genius, however, and expect that to turn around quick-like. Tuch is a wonderful, wonderful player and will be a nice piece to have when he’s ready to leave school.

15 – Detroit Red Wings – Dylan Larkin – C
With Tuch and McCann off the board, the Wings will have their pick of a handful of worthy centers. Larkin is the biggest of them, and will be playing most locally at the University of Michigan. The Wings are no strangers to collegiate prospects (Howard, Smith, DeKeyser, Nyquist, Abdelkader, Glendening, etc.) and that system has served them well.

16 – Columbus Blue Jackets – Nikita Scherbak – W
They’ve never been afraid to grab a Russian in the past, and Scherbak is a good one for that system. He’s speedy and could potentially step right into the NHL with the right situation. He has some tools that even the playoff version of the Blue Jackets are lacking.

*Remaining Draft order is not necessarily in the following order. But for argument’s sake, we’ll pretend it is*

17 – Philadelphia Flyers – Nick Schmaltz – C
The Flyers lack what you might call an elite forward prospect. And while they might not get one at this point in this Draft, they’d do well to select a center that will be able to develop slowly in the NCAA rather than being pressured into turning pro and helping out right away.

18 – New York Rangers – Sonny Milano – C
It’s no secret that the Rangers dig American players, particularly guys who come through the National Team Development Program. Milano has had a real nice April, so it’s downright likely that he’s gone by this pick, but if he’s available, the Rags get their Ryan Callahan replacement.

19 – Minnesota Wild – Thatcher Demko – G
The one team that’s likely to go goaltender in the first round is Minnesota. Aside from Kuemper, they may not have another netminder who will definitely play in the NHL, and they’re in decent shape in other areas. Demko is a big-time goaltender, and is no stranger to big games already.

20 – Los Angeles Kings – Ivan Barbashev – W
This is really nice value for this late in the Draft, and the Kings know what they’re doing.

21 – Montreal Canadiens – David Pastrnak – W
Montreal had a monster 2013 Draft. They selected SEVEN guys I had ranked in the Top 100, including a guy I wanted so badly for the Red Wings to pick that it’ll be hard to watch him do well in Montreal (Sven Andrighetto). They’re fairly stacked everywhere, so they’re in “best available” territory.

22 – Tampa Bay Lightning – Roland McKeown – D
Steve Yzerman knows as well as anyone that winners are built from the back end out, and now that Bishop may have solved his goaltending issues and they’re (likely) satisfied with the top end of their forward prospect corps, it’s time to upgrade that blueline. The one-time top ten pick McKeown would slot right under Slater Koekkoek on that list.

23 – Chicago Blackhawks – Brendan Lemieux – W
Brendan Lemieux has risen all season and will make a team very lucky in the latter half of the first round. The Hawks only real glaring hole among the prospects pool is along the wing, and this is a nice pick. Also, as if it would be harder for Red Wings fans to hate the Hawks more, why not inject some Turtle into their eventual lineup?

24 – San Jose Sharks – Josh Ho-Sang – W
When Connor McDavid was a midget, he was the second leading scorer on his team. Josh Ho-Sang may have benefitted from playing with McDavid, but he’s proving to be a legitimate NHL prospect in his own right.

25 – St. Louis Blues – Connor Bleackley – C
If there’s anything the Blues could use, it’s another scoring forward among their ranks. Bleackley seems to have that ability and would make a nice addition to relatively thin crop of centers on the farm.

26 – Pittsburgh Penguins – Robbie Fabbri – C
The Penguins are drowning in defensive prospects, and don’t boast a heck of a lot of quality down the center. They only have one center playing somewhere aside from Europe and the NCAA, so they’re in a nice position to take a Guelph Storm.

27 – Colorado Avalanche – Anthony DeAngelo – D
The Avs could really use a winger or two in this Draft, but I can’t shake the feeling they’d like DeAngelo’s game. He generates offense from the blueline, and the Avalanche are not strangers to that kind of player — not to mention, why not add to the balanced attack that Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog will be running for the next decade?

28 – Anaheim Ducks – Julius Honka – D
After taking a forward earlier, they’d probably take a defenseman to get one of each out of the first round. Honka is rated higher than this spot, and the Ducks aren’t in any hurry to have him join the big club, so a project is just fine by them.

29 – Boston Bruins – Kevin Fiala – W
As impressive as the current Bruins are, there’s a not a whole lot to be excited about coming down the pipe. While they — like the Red Wings — like guys who play both ways (see: Bergeron, Patrice), I don’t think it’d be unwise to take a flier on a guy that’s balls-out offense. With Krejci, Lucic, and Marchand’s playing style, they won’t be around forever.

30 – New Jersey (required to pick 30th as punishment) – Nikolai Goldobin – W
The Devils could use a better selection that this one, but this is what they get. With next to nothing to look forward to on the wings, selecting a guy who practically scores at will in the OHL will be a nice get for the last pick in the round.

Trade Deadline Thoughts: Snap Judgement

Okay, the Red Wings’ only move of the deadline was to acquire David Legwand for Patrick Eaves, a conditional third-round draft pick (it becomes a second-rounder if the Wings make the playoffs), and Calle Jarnkrok. I’ve been ranting on Twitter but I’m going to put it all in one place here.

I wouldn’t have traded Jarnkrok for Legwand straight-up. I hate this deal.

As I said earlier, I can justify a deal. I don’t like losing a guy like Patrick Eaves but he’s expendable and the Preds were going to ask for a roster player back, so it’s not a big loss. He’s also an unrestricted free agent this summer so he was gone anyway. The third-rounder is what I would expect to deal. I really don’t like that it’s conditional but that’s not too bad. Jarnkrok… TSN is reporting that he’s considering returning to Sweden this summer so the Wings might have lost him anyway.

In that optimistic view, it’s a second-rounder to rent Legwand and that’s not too bad. Especially if maybe Legwand re-signs with Detroit, his hometown team, this summer.

I don’t think that’s the case, though.

First off, even with injuries to Pavel Datsyuk and Darren Helm, forward was not Detroit’s biggest problem. Eventually they’ll get healthy up front. No amount of returning from injury will help their defense and they did nothing to augment it.

Secondly, I think you have to look at things in relation to other trades. The Montreal Canadiens acquired Thomas Vanek today for a second-rounder and a prospect. The Wings essentially spent more to get Legwand.

Third, if Detroit is healthy next season, as should be expected right now, they don’t need Legwand so re-signing him becomes unnecessary.

So best-case it’s a second rounder and two players the Wings would have lost anyway, who weren’t going to help them much this season. Worst-case, it’s a second-rounder and the fourth-best prospect in the Detroit organization (Eaves is a wash either way).

I dislike the deal. I think it has the potential to be the worst Ken Holland has made. But if things work out perfectly, I can justify it.

Red Wings Acquire Center Legwand at Trade Deadline

Detroit Red Wings have acquired center David Legwand in a trade deadline day deal from the Nashville Predators, the team announced on Wednesday..

Legwand was Nashville’s first-ever draft pick, selected second overall in the 1998 NHL Entry Draft, behind Vincent Lecavalier of the Tampa Bay Lightning. In 894 career games with the team, he had 200 goals and 326 assists.

A native of Detroit, Legwand played junior hockey for the Ontario Hockey League’s Plymouth Whalers.

To acquire Legwand, the Red Wings gave up forward Patrick Eaves, a conditional third-round draft pick that would become a second-rounder if Detroit makes the playoffs this season, and prospect Calle Jarnkrok, who was the Grand Rapids Griffins’ third-leading scorer in his first season in North America.

Griffins Jersey Number Updates

I’ve already looked at the Red Wings’ jersey number changes this season but now that the Griffins have released their camp roster, I can do the same for them.

None of last-season’s full-time Griffins are changing their numbers for the coming year but all of the players who joined the team late in the season have been assigned different numbers than those they wore during Grand Rapids’ Calder Cup run.

Defenseman Ryan Sproul gives up the #2 he had been wearing (having inherited it from Cody Lampl and Carlo Colaiacovo) to Joe Hartman, switching to the #7 vacated by Brendan Smith‘s ascension to the Detroit roster full-time. Fellow blueliner Xavier Ouellet switches from #37 to #16 while Richard Nedomlel goes from #41 to #45, a rare case of a Griffin wearing a high number.

With Ouellet taking #16, Marek Tvrdon drops to the #13 previously assigned to Gustav Nyquist, who seems poised to make the jump to the Red Wings.

Teemu Pulkkinen switches from #26 to the #6 that was briefly assigned to Andreas Athanasiou, with #26 going to free-agent signing David McIntyre. Calle Jarnkrok drops from the #25 he shared with Mike Knuble last year (and was originally assigned to Damien Brunner) to the #12 vacated by Brent Raedeke‘s departure. Kevin Lynch picks up the #25 from Jarnkrok.

Newcomer Alden Hirschfeld takes Francis Pare‘s old #9. Similarly, Martin Frk picks up Tomas Tatar‘s #27, Dane Walters gets Brian Lashoff‘s #32, Travis Novak will wear Jan Mursak‘s #39 and Alexey Marchenko gets the #3 that was shared by Erik Spady, Mark Mitera and Brett Skinner.

Goalie Jared Coreau gets his usual #31, meaning that he joins Landon Ferraro (#29) and Petr Mrazek (#34) as the only Griffins assigned the same number in Grand Rapids as they are in Detroit.

Joakim Andersson‘s old #18, Chad Billins‘ #14 and Danny DeKeyser‘s #55 were not assigned for camp.

Red Wings Send 17 to Grand Rapids

The Detroit Red Wings announced on Sunday the assignment of 17 players to the Grand Rapids Griffins.

Forwards Tomas Jurco, Martin Frk, Andrej Nestrasil, Trevor Parkes, Mitch Callahan, Marek Tvrdon, Calle Jarnkrok, David McIntyre and Jeff Hoggan were sent down in preparation for the Griffins’ training camp this week in Grand Rapids. They are joined by defensemen Gleason Fournier, Ryan Sproul, Brennan Evans, Max Nicastro, Xavier Ouellet and Richard Nedomlel. Goalies Tom McCollum and Cam Lanigan will also join the Griffins at camp.

Of the 17, McIntyre, Hoggan, Evans, McCollum and Lanigan were not under contract with Detroit and were in the Red Wings’ camp as invitees. None of the others were expected to compete for a spot with the Red Wings, though Jurco could see time as a call-up in case of injury.

The moves leave Detroit with 38 players remaining on the roster.

Pregame: Red Wings @ Penguins – 9/16

The Red Wings’ exhibition schedule kicks off tonight in Pittsburgh against the new conference-rival Penguins.

As per usual, only half of the team tonight will be made up of players actually expected to play in Detroit this season, the other half will be prospects and Griffins. The Red Wings will roll with a split squad for most of the preseason, allowing them to more easily play on back-to-back nights (tomorrow they’re in Chicago) while evaluating players.

Tonight’s roster is expected to be as follows:

Henrik ZetterbergPavel DatsyukJustin Abdelkader
Daniel ClearyJoakim AnderssonMikael Samuelsson
Tomas Tatar – Luke Glendenning – Landon Ferraro
Anthony ManthaCalle JarnkrokJordin Tootoo

Danny DeKeyserJakub Kindl
Kyle QuinceyBrendan Smith
Brennan EvansAdam Almqvist

Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek will split time in goal.

Game time is 7:00 PM. The game will not be on TV or radio in the Detroit area but will be televised in Pittsburgh so a stream might be available somewhere.

2013 Red Wings Jersey Number Wrap-Up

I’ve already touched on the sweater numbers worn by the Red Wings at their development camp in July and the fact that Joakim Andersson has (as expected) switched from #63 to #18. Since the full training camp roster is now out, I’ll take a look at some of the remaining numbers.

With Daniel Cleary accepting a PTO from the Flyers (with a three-year deal on the way as soon as they can clear the cap space by putting Chris Pronger on LTIR), there’s no conflict as Daniel Alfredsson takes #11.

Griffins defenseman Brennan Evans, having lost the #3 he wore in January’s Red and White Game to Nick Jensen, takes the departed Valtteri Filppula‘s #51. Similarly, Nathan Paetsch drops from #71 to the #24 vacated by Damien Brunner and Triston Grant takes the #28 that formerly belonged to Carlo Colaiacovo. Grand Rapids captain Jeff Hoggan goes from #73 (now assigned to Griffins’ forward David McIntyre) to the #81 worn in the development camp by Mattias Janmark.

Calle Jarnkrok gets the #70 that was worn in development camp by free-agent tryout Jaimen Yakubowski. McIntyre’s #73 came from try-out Brody Silk. Teemu Pulkkinen gets #56.

Free agent try-out Michal Plutner gets the #75 worn by James de Haas in July while try-out Cam Lanigan gets the #68 that was worn by Jake Patterson.

As per usual, most of these changes mean nothing as they relate to players not under contract with Detroit. The Red Wings do have a tendency to give players acquired in midseason the number of someone already in the organization, as those jerseys are already made up, but given the cap space this year Detroit is unlikely to be making any big deals.